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First half year expected to be better

Lower energy prices are currently having a moderating effect on inflation, and China's departure from the zero-covid strategy is providing relief in the markets, but especially among China's major trading partners. Thus, the first half of 2023 could turn out better than many expect. However, if core inflation (excluding energy and food) does not fall as well, policy rates are also unlikely to fall as quickly as many are hoping, and the second half of the year may be worse than the first.

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Unsettled end of the year

Both the stock and bond markets came under pressure again in December. Rising key interest rates in the USA and the euro area depressed prices on the stock exchanges and caused bond yields to rise further. In addition, the abrupt departure from the zero-covid strategy in China surprised the majority of market participants.

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The comeback of bonds

For a long time, the asset class of bonds enjoyed great popularity among professional and private investors due to its broad stability and not infrequently served as risk mitigation and diversification in portfolios. However, inflation and rising market interest rates triggered a broad sell-off in the bond market this year, abruptly ending a bull market that had lasted for three decades.

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Falling inflation provides relief

The stock markets were also able to recover in November. The main source of relief was lower inflation on both sides of the Atlantic. As a result, the markets expected less aggressive interest rate hikes by the central banks.

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We look for structural winners in the niche

With the DJE - Mittelstand & Innovation, DJE bundles high-growth and innovative companies from Germany, Austria and Switzerland in one fund. Its concentrated portfolio includes many of the "hidden champions" from this region, which has recently been somewhat out of investors' focus, but whose strong Mittelstand companies are still worth a close look.

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Renewable energies with opportunities

Even though the stock markets recovered in October because inflation in the USA declined and the energy crisis in Europe eased temporarily, the global economy is likely to remain under pressure in November and the coming months. It remains important for companies to keep an eye on their cost structure. Opportunities could arise in renewable energies.

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Unexpected heights

Market participants' hopes for a less aggressive monetary policy by central banks and a warm October, which caused the price of gas to drop significantly, caused stock markets in the USA and Europe to soar. In addition, the German economy did not shrink as expected in the third quarter, but expanded, which gave the DAX an additional boost.

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Between recession and structural growth drivers Summary

With a recession looming, a short-term downturn in the semiconductor industry is probable, but this is unlikely to have much impact on structural trends as these trends are long-term drivers. Various forces are currently affecting the semiconductor industry, whose products are indispensable in many parts of the global economy. This situation is complicated: An improvement in supply chain problems meets recession concerns, and global tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, are creating uncertainty. What investors should know now.

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Reduce equity risks - exploit selective opportunities

Inflation, rising interest rates, hawkish central banks and ongoing energy crisis in Europe sent the stock markets into the basement in September. In October we expect a short-term recovery on the markets.

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Depressed expectations

Energy prices, inflation and rising key interest rates gripped the markets and depressed business expectations and consumer sentiment. Share prices fell across the board, while bond yields rose significantly.

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Promising, but not a sure-fire winner

Online commerce experienced a huge boost from the Corona pandemic. With the return of more normality, this growth is likely to slow down. However, the structural trend remains intact. Platforms are benefiting in particular, because network effects are the economies of scale of analog mass production in the digital world. When it comes to payment systems, banks are losing out, and the importance of cash is dwindling in favour of digital wallets.

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Acting from the defensive

The second half of August was difficult for the stock markets. This was mainly due to the worsening of the energy crisis and the central banks' priority to fight inflation rather than growth and the labour market. We expect September to be another difficult month, especially for European equities and German government bonds.

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Priority for price stability

Central banks set the tone in August: as the US Federal Reserve announced that it would prioritise price stability over growth and the labour market, market participants braced themselves for further rate hikes and stock markets in the US and Europe fell.

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A widespread disease from an investor's perspective

Obesity is on the rise worldwide and literally a burden not only for those affected. It is also a burden on the healthcare and social systems of national economies. Several promising new drugs are currently in trials or have already been approved and could make expensive stomach reductions obsolete. 

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Companies report good figures

In July, most equity markets recovered some ground from the losses of the previous months. The recovery is likely to be primarily due to the start of the second quarter 2022 reporting season, which has so far been better than expected on both sides of the Atlantic.

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Light summer freshness on the stock markets

After a first half-year marked by inflation, the threat of recession and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, markets recovered somewhat in July. The US equity market continues to offer the better risk-reward ratio. And profitable companies are the trump card.

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Bonds - Renaissance of a currently undervalued asset class?

For years, bonds were outshone by equities. But the recent turnaround in monetary policy in the US and Europe, as well as the geopolitical situation, are weighing on equity prices. Adding to this are persistently high inflation and uncertainties with regard to the pandemic, as for example in China.

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A question of (price) discipline

Global automotive production typically grows at a similar level as the global GDP - yet we have seen a decoupling of this long-term trend since 2019. However, the growth prospects of the global automotive sector have not changed structurally, they have rather come under pressure due to a combination of different circumstances.

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Pressure from two sides

In June, the US Federal Reserve raised key interest rates by 75 basis points to combat rampant inflation in the US. In Europe, too, the European Central announced a departure from its zero interest rate monetary policy. High inflation also weighed on consumer sentiment and the mood of purchasing managers.

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Gas shortage threatens production

A sword of Damocles hangs over German and, to some extent, European industrial production. If Russian gas is no longer supplied, there is a risk of further price losses. The US stock market currently offers a better risk-reward ratio. In addition, selected bonds offer opportunities with manageable maturities.

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