Promising, but not a sure-fire winner
Online commerce experienced a huge boost from the Corona pandemic. With the return of more normality, this growth is likely to slow down. However, the structural trend remains intact. Platforms are benefiting in particular, because network effects are the economies of scale of analog mass production in the digital world. When it comes to payment systems, banks are losing out, and the importance of cash is dwindling in favour of digital wallets.
Acting from the defensive
The second half of August was difficult for the stock markets. This was mainly due to the worsening of the energy crisis and the central banks' priority to fight inflation rather than growth and the labour market. We expect September to be another difficult month, especially for European equities and German government bonds.
Priority for price stability
Central banks set the tone in August: as the US Federal Reserve announced that it would prioritise price stability over growth and the labour market, market participants braced themselves for further rate hikes and stock markets in the US and Europe fell.
A widespread disease from an investor's perspective
Obesity is on the rise worldwide and literally a burden not only for those affected. It is also a burden on the healthcare and social systems of national economies. Several promising new drugs are currently in trials or have already been approved and could make expensive stomach reductions obsolete.
Companies report good figures
In July, most equity markets recovered some ground from the losses of the previous months. The recovery is likely to be primarily due to the start of the second quarter 2022 reporting season, which has so far been better than expected on both sides of the Atlantic.
Light summer freshness on the stock markets
After a first half-year marked by inflation, the threat of recession and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, markets recovered somewhat in July. The US equity market continues to offer the better risk-reward ratio. And profitable companies are the trump card.
Bonds - Renaissance of a currently undervalued asset class?
For years, bonds were outshone by equities. But the recent turnaround in monetary policy in the US and Europe, as well as the geopolitical situation, are weighing on equity prices. Adding to this are persistently high inflation and uncertainties with regard to the pandemic, as for example in China.
A question of (price) discipline
Global automotive production typically grows at a similar level as the global GDP - yet we have seen a decoupling of this long-term trend since 2019. However, the growth prospects of the global automotive sector have not changed structurally, they have rather come under pressure due to a combination of different circumstances.
Pressure from two sides
In June, the US Federal Reserve raised key interest rates by 75 basis points to combat rampant inflation in the US. In Europe, too, the European Central announced a departure from its zero interest rate monetary policy. High inflation also weighed on consumer sentiment and the mood of purchasing managers.
Gas shortage threatens production
A sword of Damocles hangs over German and, to some extent, European industrial production. If Russian gas is no longer supplied, there is a risk of further price losses. The US stock market currently offers a better risk-reward ratio. In addition, selected bonds offer opportunities with manageable maturities.
Structural trends are intact
For a long time, technology stocks enjoyed a special environment: with extremely low interest rates, growth was easy to finance, growth took precedence over profitability, and Corona accelerated the digitalisation of entire sectors and areas of life. In this constellation, they were the darlings of investors. But since the beginning of 2022, that has changed.
Prudent monetary policy good for stock markets
Concerns about growth override those about inflation. In this environment, hopes are rising for a more moderate monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. In Europe, on the other hand, the interest rate turnaround is still pending. Monetary policy on autopilot is likely to hurt the stock markets, but a sense of proportion would be beneficial.
Profitability is the key
In the past years, investors mainly paid attention to criteria such as sales growth. This is very likely to change. Profitable companies with strong market positions, which can pass on prices and maintain margins, will be ahead in the future, in our view.
The war in Ukraine, persistently high energy prices, strained global supply chains and rising inflation weighed on the stock markets in April. The high interest rate expectations also put pressure on the stock markets and, moreover, on the bond markets.
The Cards Are Being Reshuffled
Rising inflation rates, rising interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions are forcing investors to rethink. A paradigm shift is taking place in the valuation of shares: Factors such as profitability and market position are becoming more important than sales growth.
Unexpectedly strong resistance
In March, the stock markets initially continued their downward trend, but were then able to catch up significantly. This was the stock markets' reaction to, among other things, Ukraine's unexpectedly strong resistance to the Russian army. At the same time, the need for action by central banks grew in view of the further increase in inflation.
Ukraine war: Distortions on the agricultural market
Ukraine is one of the largest exporters of wheat, oilseeds and other agricultural products. The war could reduce the harvest volume for the 2022/23 season by 30 to 40%. Far-reaching supply shortages cannot be ruled out. Shares from the agricultural sector are moving into focus. An investment theme for DJE - Agrar & Ernährung (agriculture & food).
Consequences for cost of living, agricultural as well as commodity markets - questions and answers
Russia's war in Ukraine in addition to all the human suffering is causing major global economic challenges - especially noticeable with regard to energy, commodity and agricultural prices. An overview for investors and consumers.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine
In February the Russian attack on Ukraine hit a market environment that was already tense due to high inflation and increased interest rate expectations. The international stock markets - with various exceptions including Australia, Korea and China Mainland (CSI 300) - subsequently declined largely.