Renewable energies with opportunities
Even though the stock markets recovered in October because inflation in the USA declined and the energy crisis in Europe eased temporarily, the global economy is likely to remain under pressure in November and the coming months. It remains important for companies to keep an eye on their cost structure. Opportunities could arise in renewable energies.
Market participants' hopes for a less aggressive monetary policy by central banks and a warm October, which caused the price of gas to drop significantly, caused stock markets in the USA and Europe to soar. In addition, the German economy did not shrink as expected in the third quarter, but expanded, which gave the DAX an additional boost.
Between recession and structural growth drivers Summary
With a recession looming, a short-term downturn in the semiconductor industry is probable, but this is unlikely to have much impact on structural trends as these trends are long-term drivers. Various forces are currently affecting the semiconductor industry, whose products are indispensable in many parts of the global economy. This situation is complicated: An improvement in supply chain problems meets recession concerns, and global tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, are creating uncertainty. What investors should know now.
Reduce equity risks - exploit selective opportunities
Inflation, rising interest rates, hawkish central banks and ongoing energy crisis in Europe sent the stock markets into the basement in September. In October we expect a short-term recovery on the markets.
Promising, but not a sure-fire winner
Online commerce experienced a huge boost from the Corona pandemic. With the return of more normality, this growth is likely to slow down. However, the structural trend remains intact. Platforms are benefiting in particular, because network effects are the economies of scale of analog mass production in the digital world. When it comes to payment systems, banks are losing out, and the importance of cash is dwindling in favour of digital wallets.
Acting from the defensive
The second half of August was difficult for the stock markets. This was mainly due to the worsening of the energy crisis and the central banks' priority to fight inflation rather than growth and the labour market. We expect September to be another difficult month, especially for European equities and German government bonds.
Priority for price stability
Central banks set the tone in August: as the US Federal Reserve announced that it would prioritise price stability over growth and the labour market, market participants braced themselves for further rate hikes and stock markets in the US and Europe fell.
A widespread disease from an investor's perspective
Obesity is on the rise worldwide and literally a burden not only for those affected. It is also a burden on the healthcare and social systems of national economies. Several promising new drugs are currently in trials or have already been approved and could make expensive stomach reductions obsolete.
Companies report good figures
In July, most equity markets recovered some ground from the losses of the previous months. The recovery is likely to be primarily due to the start of the second quarter 2022 reporting season, which has so far been better than expected on both sides of the Atlantic.
Light summer freshness on the stock markets
After a first half-year marked by inflation, the threat of recession and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, markets recovered somewhat in July. The US equity market continues to offer the better risk-reward ratio. And profitable companies are the trump card.
Bonds - Renaissance of a currently undervalued asset class?
For years, bonds were outshone by equities. But the recent turnaround in monetary policy in the US and Europe, as well as the geopolitical situation, are weighing on equity prices. Adding to this are persistently high inflation and uncertainties with regard to the pandemic, as for example in China.
A question of (price) discipline
Global automotive production typically grows at a similar level as the global GDP - yet we have seen a decoupling of this long-term trend since 2019. However, the growth prospects of the global automotive sector have not changed structurally, they have rather come under pressure due to a combination of different circumstances.
Pressure from two sides
In June, the US Federal Reserve raised key interest rates by 75 basis points to combat rampant inflation in the US. In Europe, too, the European Central announced a departure from its zero interest rate monetary policy. High inflation also weighed on consumer sentiment and the mood of purchasing managers.
Gas shortage threatens production
A sword of Damocles hangs over German and, to some extent, European industrial production. If Russian gas is no longer supplied, there is a risk of further price losses. The US stock market currently offers a better risk-reward ratio. In addition, selected bonds offer opportunities with manageable maturities.
Structural trends are intact
For a long time, technology stocks enjoyed a special environment: with extremely low interest rates, growth was easy to finance, growth took precedence over profitability, and Corona accelerated the digitalisation of entire sectors and areas of life. In this constellation, they were the darlings of investors. But since the beginning of 2022, that has changed.
Prudent monetary policy good for stock markets
Concerns about growth override those about inflation. In this environment, hopes are rising for a more moderate monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. In Europe, on the other hand, the interest rate turnaround is still pending. Monetary policy on autopilot is likely to hurt the stock markets, but a sense of proportion would be beneficial.
Profitability is the key
In the past years, investors mainly paid attention to criteria such as sales growth. This is very likely to change. Profitable companies with strong market positions, which can pass on prices and maintain margins, will be ahead in the future, in our view.
The war in Ukraine, persistently high energy prices, strained global supply chains and rising inflation weighed on the stock markets in April. The high interest rate expectations also put pressure on the stock markets and, moreover, on the bond markets.