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The Cards Are Being Reshuffled

Rising inflation rates, rising interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions are forcing investors to rethink. A paradigm shift is taking place in the valuation of shares: Factors such as profitability and market position are becoming more important than sales growth.

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Unexpectedly strong resistance

In March, the stock markets initially continued their downward trend, but were then able to catch up significantly. This was the stock markets' reaction to, among other things, Ukraine's unexpectedly strong resistance to the Russian army. At the same time, the need for action by central banks grew in view of the further increase in inflation.

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Ukraine war: Distortions on the agricultural market

Ukraine is one of the largest exporters of wheat, oilseeds and other agricultural products. The war could reduce the harvest volume for the 2022/23 season by 30 to 40%. Far-reaching supply shortages cannot be ruled out. Shares from the agricultural sector are moving into focus. An investment theme for DJE - Agrar & Ernährung (agriculture & food).

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Consequences for cost of living, agricultural as well as commodity markets - questions and answers

Russia's war in Ukraine in addition to all the human suffering is causing major global economic challenges - especially noticeable with regard to energy, commodity and agricultural prices. An overview for investors and consumers.

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Russian Invasion of Ukraine

In February the Russian attack on Ukraine hit a market environment that was already tense due to high inflation and increased interest rate expectations. The international stock markets - with various exceptions including Australia, Korea and China Mainland (CSI 300) - subsequently declined largely.

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Staying prudent in the crisis

The war in Ukraine is causing turmoil in the markets, which are already facing monetary headwinds. Energy and commodity-dependent sectors are under pressure, and the Western sanctions against Russia are additionally burdening the banking sector. It is important to act prudently in the crisis and to take advantage of opportunities as they arise.

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Utilities – rock or victim of the energy crisis?

In the current difficult market environment, the defensive utilities sector should actually perform above average. However, the Stoxx 600 Utilities Index has also declined slightly since the beginning of the year. Only regulated utilities without major risks have been able to perform well. It seems that the markets have focused too much on the risks and too little on the opportunities.

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Inflation drives interest rate expectations

In anticipation of several interest rate hikes on the part of the US Federal Reserve, which wants to combat the significant increase in inflation, the majority of market participants switched to risk-off mode. Some of the international stock markets recorded significant losses.

 

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Value over growth

Cherry-picking continues to offer investors opportunities: Reasonably valued companies that manufacture highly requested products and can also pass on the costs are currently in demand. Well-positioned companies from the telecommunications or the recently badly battered technology sector could also be interesting.

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„Europe will grow stronger than America“

Falling prices on the stock markets have investors worried, and some even see the end of the golden stock market years coming. Dr. Jens Ehrhardt, however, still firmly believes in shares and even sees new investment opportunities - an interview with Matthias Schneider from Münchner Merkur.

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Good times for stock pickers

In an environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, equities will remain attractive in 2022. This year, investors could look specifically for those companies that offer a reasonable valuation and healthy growth.

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Monetary policy turnaround in the USA

The stock markets benefited seasonally from a good development towards the end of the year, which followed the price slump from the end of November onwards. In view of the inflation trend, the US Federal Reserve said goodbye to its hitherto expansive monetary policy.

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The Battery of the Future

Hardly any issue is likely to be as defining for this century as climate change. In order to counteract the consequences of climate change, researchers, politicians and companies are increasingly looking for more climate-friendly alternatives to conventional products - including alternatives to classic cars with internal combustion engines.

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Value before growth in a sideways market

The US Federal Reserve is tightening the reins faster than expected. Bond and equity markets are likely to be more volatile in the new year and interest rates could rise. Value stocks and dividend stocks could outperform highly valued growth stocks.

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A matter of interest rates

If 2022 will be a good year for the stock markets depends for Dr. Jens Ehrhardt primarily on the development of interest rates and inflation. If the U.S. Federal Reserve decides to tighten its monetary policy only cautiously the stock markets could be in for another good year. However two black swans, Corona and China, are also lying in wait.

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Short-term benefit from booster vaccination, but from Diabetes in the long term

The coronavirus has had a firm grip on the world for almost two years now and has led to a previously unimaginable surge in innovation, not least in the medical and pharmaceutical sectors. In the long term, however, diseases of affluence such as obesity and diabetes will outstrip the virus in the healthcare sector.

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"Growth is underestimated and inflation overestimated"

Stefan Breintner works alongside Dr. Jan Ehrhardt as co-fund manager of the DJE - Zins & Dividende. Here Breintner explains his understanding of the current discussion on stagflation, China and monetary policy and how both fund managers have recently positioned the DJE - Zins & Dividende.

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Sideways with a friendly trend

Companies' appetite for investment is rising steadily, and many firms want to restock in the coming year. This could boost the upswing in 2022. The investment regions of the USA and especially Europe, as well as the banking and energy sectors, are currently attractive in our view.

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Growing market for luxury goods - the brand makes the difference

Thanks to steadily increasing demand from Asia the luxury sector has developed above average in recent years. Both leather goods and jewellery enjoy high popularity. In the watch market selected high-priced watches from popular, privately managed brands are in high demand. In the mid-range and lower price segments luxury watches are competing with the success of smartwatches.

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A defensive and balanced start to autumn

Concerns about corporate earnings, inflation and China are likely to continue to depress market sentiment in the forthcoming month, therefore we are positioning ourselves more defensively.

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