Markets
Price potential and inflation
High corporate profit expectations suggest further price potential for the stock markets in the coming months. Increased inflation accompanies the well-performing economy, but without triggering further shocks. As the excessive optimism has cooled down again, an abrupt disappointment of investors is unlikely.
Summer trend 2021: Sideways
The rally phase of the first third of the year is likely to be replaced by a sideways trend in the summer. Moderate inflation could support equities and real assets. The investment regions of the USA and Europe remain interesting. And commodities and gold are also gaining in attractiveness again.
Realised catch-up potential
In the USA and especially in China, April showed the great catch-up potential created by the Corona pandemic and the restrictions on social and economic life. Many companies presented quarterly figures that far exceeded expectations, and the Chinese economy grew by a unique 18.3% year-on-year in the first quarter.
Vaccinations provide tailwind for stock markets
In March, good economic indicators reflected confidence that the Corona-related restrictions could soon be left behind as China and the USA continue to achieve success in terms of vaccinations, and gave the stock markets in Europe and the USA a tailwind. Market participants also welcomed the U.S. $1.9 trillion Corona aid package.
Stock markets will continue to rise worldwide
In an interview with the Börsen-Zeitung, Dr. Jens Ehrhardt reflects on inflation, central bank policy, exaggerations and corrections and the bull market of technology stocks.
Mutations, bottlenecks and speculation
The stock markets started January in a good mood. However, this sentiment flattened out and turned negative towards the end of the month. This was due to concerns about Corona mutations and vaccine supply shortages on the one hand, and speculation by small investors on the other, which led to a "short squeeze".
Mutations, bottlenecks and speculation
The stock markets started January in a good mood. However, this sentiment flattened out and turned negative towards the end of the month. This was due to concerns about Corona mutations and vaccine supply shortages on the one hand, and speculation by small investors on the other, which led to a "short squeeze".
The Vaccine Effect
The relief rally continued in December, albeit more subdued than in the previous month. The decisive factor, as in almost all of 2020, was Corona. The UK was the first country to start vaccinating, while central banks continued to provide the markets with enormous liquidity. In parallel, there were noticeable signs of economic life, especially from China, but also from the euro area.
Bonds and gold as stabilizing elements, equities as profit drivers
The year 2020 was primarily influenced by the Corona pandemic. The first quarter suffered the fastest and sharpest stock market slump worldwide in economic history. The Corona shock hit the world in a very vulnerable situation,in which the economy was already slowing down significantly internationally so that the pandemic massively reinforced the existing downward trend.
Biden's election victory: a plus for green stocks
As an asset manager and investor Dr. Jens Ehrhardt saw the arrival and departure of many US presidents - and their impact for the stock markets. In this interview he explains, among other things, what fiscal policy could be expected from the election winner Joe Biden and which industries are likely to benefit.
Second Corona wave slows down the markets
A second wave of corona hit the international stock markets in September. In addition, the U.S. election campaign caused uncertainty, while in Europe the brexite issue regained its sharpness. On the other hand, the economy continued to recover in Europe, the USA and China.
China's economy recovers - tensions with USA persist
Normality is slowly returning to China after the Corona shock. Domestic travelling is rising, events are taking place again and domestic demand is boosting the luxury sector. However, tensions between China and the US remain.
"Taking account of governance criteria"
Debates regarding a reform of the DAX index arose after the Wirecard scandal arose and the company Delivery Hero was listed to the German stock index DAX. Dr. Jens Ehrhardt has been working with the DAX and many other international stock market indices for over 45 years and has his own opinion regarding this matter.
Recovery and tailwind
Against the backdrop of rising new corona infections, quarterly profits of many companies, especially in the U.S., significantly exceeded the low expectations. In addition, various economic data improved in Germany, the U.S. and China, and the U.S. Federal Reserve additionally supported the stock markets by changing its strategy towards its inflation target of 2%.
“16,000 points for the DAX are realistic”
In an interview with the financial journalist Bernd Heller Dr. Jens Ehrhardt confirmed his latest forecast for the DAX: 16,000 points in spring 2021 are "realistic". In fact the forecast is actually "modest", as it exceeds this year's high by only around 15% - not much considering the mass of liquidity that the central banks are pumping into the economic cycle as a decisive force and a good portion of which is likely to flow into the stock markets because of the lack of alternatives.
Skid marks
Corona continued to dominate the scene in July, on one hand with confident reports on vaccine development, on the other hand with new infection rates rising again. In addition the negative figures for economic growth showed the extent to which the pandemic had slowed down in the second quarter. Gold reached a new all-time high with further falling interest rates and a weaker US dollar.
Leading indicators are recovering
In June some leading indicators such as business climate, consumer confidence and purchasing managers' indices improved, especially in Europe, but also in the US and China. As encouraging as these figures are the "hard" economic data such as industrial production, exports and new orders declined significantly as they had already previous month.
Liquidity drives the markets
Despite weak economic data, declining industrial production and a shrinking economy: Hopes for a recovery emerged on the markets, albeit from a low level. Hopes were fueled by extensive support packages in Europe and Asia.
The market correction, which had already begun in February, continued in March as a severe slump on the stock markets. This was triggered by fears of a global recession due to the ever increasing spread of the corona virus. Extensive rescue packages and monetary policy measures in the USA and Europe helped to stabilise the markets at a low level.
Corona and the markets - key questions and answers for investors
The corona crisis has us under firm control. As many investors are showing signs of uncertainty we want to provide further guidance. This includes assessments of expected economic consequences as well as recommendations how to protect your capital and build up your wealth with equities, bonds etc. - even with a sustainable orientation.