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Markets

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Acting from the defensive

The second half of August was difficult for the stock markets. This was mainly due to the worsening of the energy crisis and the central banks' priority to fight inflation rather than growth and the labour market. We expect September to be another difficult month, especially for European equities and German government bonds.

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Priority for price stability

Central banks set the tone in August: as the US Federal Reserve announced that it would prioritise price stability over growth and the labour market, market participants braced themselves for further rate hikes and stock markets in the US and Europe fell.

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Companies report good figures

In July, most equity markets recovered some ground from the losses of the previous months. The recovery is likely to be primarily due to the start of the second quarter 2022 reporting season, which has so far been better than expected on both sides of the Atlantic.

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Light summer freshness on the stock markets

After a first half-year marked by inflation, the threat of recession and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, markets recovered somewhat in July. The US equity market continues to offer the better risk-reward ratio. And profitable companies are the trump card.

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Bonds - Renaissance of a currently undervalued asset class?

For years, bonds were outshone by equities. But the recent turnaround in monetary policy in the US and Europe, as well as the geopolitical situation, are weighing on equity prices. Adding to this are persistently high inflation and uncertainties with regard to the pandemic, as for example in China.

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Pressure from two sides

In June, the US Federal Reserve raised key interest rates by 75 basis points to combat rampant inflation in the US. In Europe, too, the European Central announced a departure from its zero interest rate monetary policy. High inflation also weighed on consumer sentiment and the mood of purchasing managers.

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Gas shortage threatens production

A sword of Damocles hangs over German and, to some extent, European industrial production. If Russian gas is no longer supplied, there is a risk of further price losses. The US stock market currently offers a better risk-reward ratio. In addition, selected bonds offer opportunities with manageable maturities.

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Prudent monetary policy good for stock markets

Concerns about growth override those about inflation. In this environment, hopes are rising for a more moderate monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. In Europe, on the other hand, the interest rate turnaround is still pending. Monetary policy on autopilot is likely to hurt the stock markets, but a sense of proportion would be beneficial.

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Profitability is the key

In the past years, investors mainly paid attention to criteria such as sales growth. This is very likely to change. Profitable companies with strong market positions, which can pass on prices and maintain margins, will be ahead in the future, in our view.

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Risk mixture

The war in Ukraine, persistently high energy prices, strained global supply chains and rising inflation weighed on the stock markets in April. The high interest rate expectations also put pressure on the stock markets and, moreover, on the bond markets.

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The Cards Are Being Reshuffled

Rising inflation rates, rising interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions are forcing investors to rethink. A paradigm shift is taking place in the valuation of shares: Factors such as profitability and market position are becoming more important than sales growth.

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Unexpectedly strong resistance

In March, the stock markets initially continued their downward trend, but were then able to catch up significantly. This was the stock markets' reaction to, among other things, Ukraine's unexpectedly strong resistance to the Russian army. At the same time, the need for action by central banks grew in view of the further increase in inflation.

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Consequences for cost of living, agricultural as well as commodity markets - questions and answers

Russia's war in Ukraine in addition to all the human suffering is causing major global economic challenges - especially noticeable with regard to energy, commodity and agricultural prices. An overview for investors and consumers.

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Russian Invasion of Ukraine

In February the Russian attack on Ukraine hit a market environment that was already tense due to high inflation and increased interest rate expectations. The international stock markets - with various exceptions including Australia, Korea and China Mainland (CSI 300) - subsequently declined largely.

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Staying prudent in the crisis

The war in Ukraine is causing turmoil in the markets, which are already facing monetary headwinds. Energy and commodity-dependent sectors are under pressure, and the Western sanctions against Russia are additionally burdening the banking sector. It is important to act prudently in the crisis and to take advantage of opportunities as they arise.

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Inflation drives interest rate expectations

In anticipation of several interest rate hikes on the part of the US Federal Reserve, which wants to combat the significant increase in inflation, the majority of market participants switched to risk-off mode. Some of the international stock markets recorded significant losses.

 

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Value over growth

Cherry-picking continues to offer investors opportunities: Reasonably valued companies that manufacture highly requested products and can also pass on the costs are currently in demand. Well-positioned companies from the telecommunications or the recently badly battered technology sector could also be interesting.

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„Europe will grow stronger than America“

Falling prices on the stock markets have investors worried, and some even see the end of the golden stock market years coming. Dr. Jens Ehrhardt, however, still firmly believes in shares and even sees new investment opportunities - an interview with Matthias Schneider from Münchner Merkur.

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Good times for stock pickers

In an environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, equities will remain attractive in 2022. This year, investors could look specifically for those companies that offer a reasonable valuation and healthy growth.

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Monetary policy turnaround in the USA

The stock markets benefited seasonally from a good development towards the end of the year, which followed the price slump from the end of November onwards. In view of the inflation trend, the US Federal Reserve said goodbye to its hitherto expansive monetary policy.

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