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Prudent monetary policy good for stock markets

Concerns about growth override those about inflation. In this environment, hopes are rising for a more moderate monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. In Europe, on the other hand, the interest rate turnaround is still pending. Monetary policy on autopilot is likely to hurt the stock markets, but a sense of proportion would be beneficial.

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Profitability is the key

In the past years, investors mainly paid attention to criteria such as sales growth. This is very likely to change. Profitable companies with strong market positions, which can pass on prices and maintain margins, will be ahead in the future, in our view.

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Risk mixture

The war in Ukraine, persistently high energy prices, strained global supply chains and rising inflation weighed on the stock markets in April. The high interest rate expectations also put pressure on the stock markets and, moreover, on the bond markets.

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The Cards Are Being Reshuffled

Rising inflation rates, rising interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions are forcing investors to rethink. A paradigm shift is taking place in the valuation of shares: Factors such as profitability and market position are becoming more important than sales growth.

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Unexpectedly strong resistance

In March, the stock markets initially continued their downward trend, but were then able to catch up significantly. This was the stock markets' reaction to, among other things, Ukraine's unexpectedly strong resistance to the Russian army. At the same time, the need for action by central banks grew in view of the further increase in inflation.

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Consequences for cost of living, agricultural as well as commodity markets - questions and answers

Russia's war in Ukraine in addition to all the human suffering is causing major global economic challenges - especially noticeable with regard to energy, commodity and agricultural prices. An overview for investors and consumers.

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Russian Invasion of Ukraine

In February the Russian attack on Ukraine hit a market environment that was already tense due to high inflation and increased interest rate expectations. The international stock markets - with various exceptions including Australia, Korea and China Mainland (CSI 300) - subsequently declined largely.

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Staying prudent in the crisis

The war in Ukraine is causing turmoil in the markets, which are already facing monetary headwinds. Energy and commodity-dependent sectors are under pressure, and the Western sanctions against Russia are additionally burdening the banking sector. It is important to act prudently in the crisis and to take advantage of opportunities as they arise.

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Inflation drives interest rate expectations

In anticipation of several interest rate hikes on the part of the US Federal Reserve, which wants to combat the significant increase in inflation, the majority of market participants switched to risk-off mode. Some of the international stock markets recorded significant losses.

 

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Value over growth

Cherry-picking continues to offer investors opportunities: Reasonably valued companies that manufacture highly requested products and can also pass on the costs are currently in demand. Well-positioned companies from the telecommunications or the recently badly battered technology sector could also be interesting.

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„Europe will grow stronger than America“

Falling prices on the stock markets have investors worried, and some even see the end of the golden stock market years coming. Dr. Jens Ehrhardt, however, still firmly believes in shares and even sees new investment opportunities - an interview with Matthias Schneider from Münchner Merkur.

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Good times for stock pickers

In an environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, equities will remain attractive in 2022. This year, investors could look specifically for those companies that offer a reasonable valuation and healthy growth.

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Monetary policy turnaround in the USA

The stock markets benefited seasonally from a good development towards the end of the year, which followed the price slump from the end of November onwards. In view of the inflation trend, the US Federal Reserve said goodbye to its hitherto expansive monetary policy.

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Value before growth in a sideways market

The US Federal Reserve is tightening the reins faster than expected. Bond and equity markets are likely to be more volatile in the new year and interest rates could rise. Value stocks and dividend stocks could outperform highly valued growth stocks.

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A matter of interest rates

If 2022 will be a good year for the stock markets depends for Dr. Jens Ehrhardt primarily on the development of interest rates and inflation. If the U.S. Federal Reserve decides to tighten its monetary policy only cautiously the stock markets could be in for another good year. However two black swans, Corona and China, are also lying in wait.

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Sideways with a friendly trend

Companies' appetite for investment is rising steadily, and many firms want to restock in the coming year. This could boost the upswing in 2022. The investment regions of the USA and especially Europe, as well as the banking and energy sectors, are currently attractive in our view.

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A defensive and balanced start to autumn

Concerns about corporate earnings, inflation and China are likely to continue to depress market sentiment in the forthcoming month, therefore we are positioning ourselves more defensively.

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Troubled September

A combination of problems overshadowed the hitherto positive economic environment and still good corporate figures: the Evergrande imbalance, supply bottlenecks, rising inflationary pressure and market participants' concerns about a possibly more restrictive monetary policy in the future.

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Elections and inflation temporarily cause unrest

The unrest ahead of the German parliamentary elections could temporarily depress the German stock market. A clear shift to the left, for example, is likely to cause unease among investors and cause interest rates to rise. Green shares and exposures to Japan appear attractive at the moment.

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Monetary policy supports equity markets

Even though August is considered to be a rather restrained month for the stock markets, the international stock markets did well with a few exceptions (Brazil, Singapore). Among other things, the markets benefited from the continued expansionary monetary policy in the USA and the euro area, while the further increase in inflation weighed on the markets.

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