Good times for stock pickers
In an environment of high inflation and rising interest rates, equities will remain attractive in 2022. This year, investors could look specifically for those companies that offer a reasonable valuation and healthy growth.
Monetary policy turnaround in the USA
The stock markets benefited seasonally from a good development towards the end of the year, which followed the price slump from the end of November onwards. In view of the inflation trend, the US Federal Reserve said goodbye to its hitherto expansive monetary policy.
Value before growth in a sideways market
The US Federal Reserve is tightening the reins faster than expected. Bond and equity markets are likely to be more volatile in the new year and interest rates could rise. Value stocks and dividend stocks could outperform highly valued growth stocks.
A matter of interest rates
If 2022 will be a good year for the stock markets depends for Dr. Jens Ehrhardt primarily on the development of interest rates and inflation. If the U.S. Federal Reserve decides to tighten its monetary policy only cautiously the stock markets could be in for another good year. However two black swans, Corona and China, are also lying in wait.
Sideways with a friendly trend
Companies' appetite for investment is rising steadily, and many firms want to restock in the coming year. This could boost the upswing in 2022. The investment regions of the USA and especially Europe, as well as the banking and energy sectors, are currently attractive in our view.
A combination of problems overshadowed the hitherto positive economic environment and still good corporate figures: the Evergrande imbalance, supply bottlenecks, rising inflationary pressure and market participants' concerns about a possibly more restrictive monetary policy in the future.
Elections and inflation temporarily cause unrest
The unrest ahead of the German parliamentary elections could temporarily depress the German stock market. A clear shift to the left, for example, is likely to cause unease among investors and cause interest rates to rise. Green shares and exposures to Japan appear attractive at the moment.
Monetary policy supports equity markets
Even though August is considered to be a rather restrained month for the stock markets, the international stock markets did well with a few exceptions (Brazil, Singapore). Among other things, the markets benefited from the continued expansionary monetary policy in the USA and the euro area, while the further increase in inflation weighed on the markets.
Cautious optimism and Chinese regulatory frenzy
Many companies were able to meet or exceed the high profit expectations for the second quarter. Rising producer prices, supply bottlenecks and a resurgence of pandemics make companies more cautious but still optimistic about the future. In China, on the other hand, the government caused deep red figures with regulations and statements.
Despite inflation - interest rates are falling
Even though August and September are not considered good stock market months, we expect good prospects for the stock markets as the year progresses, with advantages for Europe and the USA over Asia and the emerging markets. However, it is important to keep an eye on the development of inflation, interest rates and the Corona pandemic.
Pricing power makes the difference
The global economy should continue to develop well, and the profit forecasts of some companies could even be exceeded. Due to rising producer prices, the focus is increasingly on companies that have strong pricing power. Rising inflation rates are eating away at the mini- or minus interest rates on government securities.
Earnings growth drives markets, producer prices drive inflation
For the second quarter, many companies expect high earnings growth compared to the same quarter last year, which was heavily weighed down by Corona. This supported equity markets in June, while rising producer prices pushed up inflation worldwide.
Interim conclusion 2021 – and investor questions on Corona, inflation & Co.
The global economy is recovering from the consequences of the Corona pandemic, many stock markets have performed well in the first half of 2021. But where do things go from here? Dr Jens Ehrhardt analyses central bank guidance, market sentiment and sector potential for the coming months - based on current questions from DJE social media followers.
Price potential and inflation
High corporate profit expectations suggest further price potential for the stock markets in the coming months. Increased inflation accompanies the well-performing economy, but without triggering further shocks. As the excessive optimism has cooled down again, an abrupt disappointment of investors is unlikely.
Summer trend 2021: Sideways
The rally phase of the first third of the year is likely to be replaced by a sideways trend in the summer. Moderate inflation could support equities and real assets. The investment regions of the USA and Europe remain interesting. And commodities and gold are also gaining in attractiveness again.
Realised catch-up potential
In the USA and especially in China, April showed the great catch-up potential created by the Corona pandemic and the restrictions on social and economic life. Many companies presented quarterly figures that far exceeded expectations, and the Chinese economy grew by a unique 18.3% year-on-year in the first quarter.
Vaccinations provide tailwind for stock markets
In March, good economic indicators reflected confidence that the Corona-related restrictions could soon be left behind as China and the USA continue to achieve success in terms of vaccinations, and gave the stock markets in Europe and the USA a tailwind. Market participants also welcomed the U.S. $1.9 trillion Corona aid package.
Stock markets will continue to rise worldwide
In an interview with the Börsen-Zeitung, Dr. Jens Ehrhardt reflects on inflation, central bank policy, exaggerations and corrections and the bull market of technology stocks.
Mutations, bottlenecks and speculation
The stock markets started January in a good mood. However, this sentiment flattened out and turned negative towards the end of the month. This was due to concerns about Corona mutations and vaccine supply shortages on the one hand, and speculation by small investors on the other, which led to a "short squeeze".