The authors: DJE's strategy team monitors and evaluates the markets on an ongoing basis using the in-house FMM method according to fundamental, monetary and market technology criteria.
From a seasonal perspective, August is often a weak month. In August 2025, however, the stock markets performed well overall. While the German market and the major US stock exchanges declined slightly, the broad European market and, above all, the Japanese market recorded price gains. At the sector level, commodities and pharmaceuticals/healthcare stocks were in demand worldwide last month, while utilities and technology stocks were particularly disappointing. In Europe, the basic resources/commodities and automotive sectors performed very well in August, while the media and technology sectors were rather weak.
We remain constructive on the markets in the medium term. However, looking ahead to September, it is conceivable that conditions on the markets will become somewhat more difficult and that stock markets will weaken slightly. Seasonally speaking, September is one of the weakest months of the year. Should there be a correction or period of weakness on the markets in September, we believe that the technology and industrial sectors, among others, will be promising, while the consumer goods and insurance sectors are likely to perform more weakly in our view. At the country level, we favor the US. We believe Japanese financial stocks remain interesting and offer opportunities. We also continue to view gold as an important component of diversification and risk limitation.
Opportunities that we see:
Outlook for 2026 – US economic and earnings performance: Largely due to Trump's “Big Beautiful Bill,” the US economy and US earnings are likely to perform well overall thanks to tax breaks, the possibility of special depreciation allowances, and high levels of investment. If the US purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector remains above 50, cyclical sectors such as industry and basic resources could perform well.
Gold/precious metals: These continue to be viewed as an attractive portfolio component. The low positioning of (global) investors suggests further potential. Due to the structural supply deficit and demand from the renewable energy sector, it may be possible to add silver and mining stocks to the mix.
Japan and Japanese banking and insurance stocks: Japanese financial stocks remain promising due to expected positive interest income and good credit growth in foreign business.
Emerging markets (including China), with the exception of India, remain selectively promising: Emerging markets generally benefit from a weak US dollar, as liquidity in these regions usually improves when the US dollar weakens.
Risks that we see:
Seasonality: From a seasonal perspective, September is a difficult or negative month.
India (primarily from a geopolitical perspective): The Indian investment region and Indian equities have recently been weighed down by new US tariffs. Although India remains promising in the long term, it is currently being weighed down primarily by geopolitical developments.
France/Germany/interest rate trends: The difficult political situation in France could lead to a further rise in long-term French interest rates. Despite eight interest rate cuts by the ECB, German bond yields for 30-year government bonds are rising. The reason for this is the expected high level of new borrowing.
Market breadth and sentiment: In terms of market dynamics, market breadth remains low. The rise in the US index largely reflects fewer technology stocks.
Attacks on the independence of the US Federal Reserve and the development of the US dollar are currently unclear and could have a negative impact on the global capital market.
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Marketing advert: All information published here is for your information only and does not constitute investment advice or any other recommendation. The statements contained in this document reflect the current assessment of DJE Kapital AG. These may change at any time without prior notice. All statements made have been made with care in accordance with the state of knowledge at the time of preparation. However, no guarantee and no liability can be assumed for the accuracy and completeness of the information.