The authors: DJE's strategy team monitors and evaluates the markets on an ongoing basis using the in-house FMM method according to fundamental, monetary and market-technical criteria.
From a seasonal perspective, September is often considered a weaker month, but this is not the case this year. The global stock markets rose overall in the month under review. While the German market recorded slight losses, the broad European markets and the US stock markets in particular performed positively. The Japanese market, which we recently classified as promising, also performed positively. At sector level, the focus worldwide was primarily on technology companies, while non-cyclical consumer stocks were weaker. In Europe, the commodities, retail and technology sectors were among the stronger segments in September, while food, chemicals and telecommunications were less dynamic.
We remain constructive on the markets in the medium term. Looking ahead to October, however, increased volatility is conceivable. Should there be a correction, the US markets and the industrial sector are considered to be comparatively resilient. European stocks, on the other hand, could tend to receive less support.
The earnings performance of US companies is currently viewed more favorably than that of their European counterparts. Accordingly, the US dollar should remain stable, especially as current sentiment and positioning data do not point to renewed weakness against the euro.
Gold and selected emerging markets, for example in Latin America, remain interesting as an addition, particularly via broadly diversified investment instruments. In the bond sector, the focus remains on short to medium maturities.
Opportunities that we see:
Reporting season: both for the major technology stocks and for the broad corporate base of the S&P 500, earnings expectations for the third quarter are considered realistic and not excessive.
US economic and earnings development with a view to 2026: As a result of Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill", the US economy and US profits are likely to develop positively overall due to tax breaks, the possibility of special depreciation allowances and high levels of investment. Companies in the infrastructure, data center equipment and energy sectors as well as suppliers to hyperscalers in the field of artificial intelligence remain interesting. Engineering and commodity stocks could also benefit from the high investment spending.
Gold/precious metals: Gold is and remains an interesting stability component in the portfolio. The currently low positioning of institutional investors suggests further upside potential. An admixture of silver - particularly due to the structural supply deficit and demand from the renewable energy sector - and mining stocks appears attractive on a selective basis.
Emerging markets remain selectively opportunity-rich: Excluding India, selected emerging markets, including Mexico and other countries in Latin America, remain selectively opportunity-rich.
Pharmaceuticals sector: After a phase of significant underperformance, the sector could recover in the short to medium term, supported by increasing clarity in the discussion about the US "Most Favored Nation" (MFN) Act.
Risks that we are monitoring:
Export-oriented sectors in Europe: German and European export stocks from the automotive and chemical sectors could increasingly suffer from a strong euro. In addition, there are growing competitive risks from suppliers from China and possible burdens from US tariffs.
Interest rate trends in France and Germany: The current tense political situation in France could lead to an increase in long-term yields on French government bonds.
Market breadth and sentiment: From a market perspective, the low market breadth remains a risk. The rise in the index in the USA is largely a reflection of a small number of technology stocks.
Consumer goods sector: Companies in the consumer staples sector continue to perform weakly. Profit growth is low, while the high interest rate level of long-term bonds and weak US consumer confidence are exerting additional pressure.
Corporate bonds: Low spreads and a lack of rating differentiation currently make corporate bonds less attractive.
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Marketing advertisement: All information published here is for your information only and does not constitute investment advice or any other recommendation. The statements contained in this document reflect the current assessment of DJE Kapital AG. These may change at any time without prior notice. All statements made have been made with care in accordance with the state of knowledge at the time of preparation. However, no guarantee and no liability can be assumed for the correctness and completeness.