The international stock markets largely performed well in September, with stock markets in Asia and North America making better progress than those in Europe, despite various disruptive factors such as an escalation in the Ukraine conflict, the prospect of a US shutdown, a government crisis in France and possible new US punitive tariffs.
Above all, investors expected the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates for the first time this year, and the Fed delivered. US key interest rates fell by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%. The Fed also held out the prospect of further interest rate hikes in a cautious outlook. The major US technology stocks in particular were able to capitalize on this. However, whether further interest rate cuts will be made in the USA also depends on the inflation trend, and in August the inflation rate rose to 2.9% compared to the same month last year. In July it was still 2.7%. In addition, economic indicators such as the purchasing managers' index, private consumption and consumer confidence remained largely stable.
In Europe, on the other hand, the economic picture was mixed, with a slight increase in industrial production, a slight rise in the purchasing managers' index and moderate inflation of 2.2% in September (previous month: 2.0%), but rising unemployment. As expected, the ECB left key interest rates unchanged at 2.00% (deposit facility). In political terms, the focus was on the government crisis in France, which was sparked by proposed austerity measures to curb the sprawling national budget. The independent rating agency Fitch therefore lowered its credit rating for French government bonds.
There was little movement on the bond market: The yield on 10-year German government bonds fell by 4 basis points to 2.71%, and that of their US counterparts fell by 8 basis points to 4.15%. Yields on high-quality and high-yield corporate bonds also fell only moderately.
The situation on the gold market was completely different: the price of a troy ounce rose by 10.7% to USD 3,858 in September, setting a new all-time high. The sustained upward momentum can be attributed to various macroeconomic factors, including monetary easing in the US, political uncertainty in the US with regard to the potential shutdown and domestic security, as well as continued gold purchases by central banks and gold ETFs. Against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tensions, gold is likely to remain in demand as a safe haven and anchor of stability in portfolios.
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