Investment Themes
Automotive industry: The calm before the storm
The automotive industry in Europe seems to have stabilised as supply chain problems and cost inflation due to the Covid-19 pandemic have eased. However, the shift towards electric vehicles is profoundly affecting the sector and presents challenges for traditional manufacturers.
Key industry for decarbonisation
Commodities have fared better in the past. But since the beginning of 2022, it seems, the worm has been in the wind. Production, profits and revenues of mining companies are falling, only costs are rising. But the sector is consolidating and a bottom is in sight. Moreover, the current mine supply cannot meet demand for some metals. This applies first and foremost to the key metal of decarbonisation: copper.
Cloud Computing – renting instead of (self-)making
In retrospect, 2006 was a decisive year for online retailing: the industry giant Amazon opened up its IT infrastructure, which until then had been used exclusively by itself, to other retailers and companies as a service. These "Amazon Web Services" include a broad range of different technical solutions that can be booked and cancelled according to individual needs. „Cloud computing" developed from this. In the following analysis, investors will learn about the complexity behind it, the opportunities that arise from it and which companies currently dominate the market.
Light at the end of the tunnel?
With inflation easing, a recovery of German equitites of the residential real estate sector is possible. Certainly, the interest rate turnaround at the ECB will still take time, but the increase of key interest rates are beginning to take effect. The easing of energy costs is also having a supportive effect. In this environment a 30 percent correction of real estate prices anticipated by the market seems exaggerated, especially as the housing shortage continues to worsen. New construction should remain at a very low level in the coming years, while the influx of refugees from Ukraine is continuing at record levels.
The comeback of bonds
For a long time, the asset class of bonds enjoyed great popularity among professional and private investors due to its broad stability and not infrequently served as risk mitigation and diversification in portfolios. However, inflation and rising market interest rates triggered a broad sell-off in the bond market this year, abruptly ending a bull market that had lasted for three decades.
Between recession and structural growth drivers Summary
With a recession looming, a short-term downturn in the semiconductor industry is probable, but this is unlikely to have much impact on structural trends as these trends are long-term drivers. Various forces are currently affecting the semiconductor industry, whose products are indispensable in many parts of the global economy. This situation is complicated: An improvement in supply chain problems meets recession concerns, and global tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, are creating uncertainty. What investors should know now.
Promising, but not a sure-fire winner
Online commerce experienced a huge boost from the Corona pandemic. With the return of more normality, this growth is likely to slow down. However, the structural trend remains intact. Platforms are benefiting in particular, because network effects are the economies of scale of analog mass production in the digital world. When it comes to payment systems, banks are losing out, and the importance of cash is dwindling in favour of digital wallets.
A widespread disease from an investor's perspective
Obesity is on the rise worldwide and literally a burden not only for those affected. It is also a burden on the healthcare and social systems of national economies. Several promising new drugs are currently in trials or have already been approved and could make expensive stomach reductions obsolete.
A question of (price) discipline
Global automotive production typically grows at a similar level as the global GDP - yet we have seen a decoupling of this long-term trend since 2019. However, the growth prospects of the global automotive sector have not changed structurally, they have rather come under pressure due to a combination of different circumstances.
Structural trends are intact
For a long time, technology stocks enjoyed a special environment: with extremely low interest rates, growth was easy to finance, growth took precedence over profitability, and Corona accelerated the digitalisation of entire sectors and areas of life. In this constellation, they were the darlings of investors. But since the beginning of 2022, that has changed.
The need for change
While oil prices have continued to rise in recent months, investment in new oil and gas projects have been stalled for some time. Investors are increasingly avoiding industries that produce fossil fuels and high CO2 emissions.
Ukraine war: Distortions on the agricultural market
Ukraine is one of the largest exporters of wheat, oilseeds and other agricultural products. The war could reduce the harvest volume for the 2022/23 season by 30 to 40%. Far-reaching supply shortages cannot be ruled out. Shares from the agricultural sector are moving into focus. An investment theme for DJE - Agrar & Ernährung (agriculture & food).
Utilities – rock or victim of the energy crisis?
In the current difficult market environment, the defensive utilities sector should actually perform above average. However, the Stoxx 600 Utilities Index has also declined slightly since the beginning of the year. Only regulated utilities without major risks have been able to perform well. It seems that the markets have focused too much on the risks and too little on the opportunities.
The Battery of the Future
Hardly any issue is likely to be as defining for this century as climate change. In order to counteract the consequences of climate change, researchers, politicians and companies are increasingly looking for more climate-friendly alternatives to conventional products - including alternatives to classic cars with internal combustion engines.
Commodities: no general supercycle, but selective opportunities - especially for copper
Gold investments are traditionally perceived as inflation protection. However, in 2021 gold only fulfilled this function to a limited extent. Although the inflation trend has accelerated strongly so far this year, most recently to +5.4 per cent in the USA and +2.2 per cent in Europe, the price of a troy ounce of gold is currently around $1,808/oz, a good 5 per cent below the level at the beginning of the year.
Scarce commodity: residential real estate remains in demand
Despite increased risks such as interest rates or regulation, residential real estate remains attractive - in addition, high discounts to the intrinsic value of real estate shares are enticing.
Trust no one - and other software success models
Although technology stocks are not as much focused at the moment as they were in 2020, the digital transformation continues and with it the demand for software solutions. The call for security is particularly strong because the shift of sensitive data to cloud systems, like the omnipresent collection of customer data, also triggers unauthorized desires. An investment theme for the DJE - Alpha Global.
Upswing for agricultural shares
Rents and real estate prices have risen in the urban centers for years - we are used to this situation. Rising food prices, however, were not an issue for years. Well, that seems to change now. The consequences for the agricultural sector are analyzed by Jörg Dehning, fund manager of the DJE - Agrar & Ernährung.